This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".

A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.

All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).

This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. 

Cristobal

Dolly

Edouard

Quel sera le nom du premier ouragan dans l'Atlantique pour la saison des ouragans 2026 ?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a tropical cyclone makes landfall on Honshu, Japan between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.

A tropical cyclone is a system classified by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) as a tropical storm or stronger, meaning maximum sustained winds (10-minute average) of at least 34 knots (17.2 m/s), in the JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the landfall. A system classified only as a tropical depression, or as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, at that time does not qualify. 

Landfall means the center of the tropical cyclone's circulation physically crosses the coastline of Honshu. A system whose center crosses the coastline only of Hokkaido, Kyushu, Shikoku, Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, or any smaller island, or that passes over or near Honshu without its center crossing the Honshu coastline, does not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Japan Meteorological Agency's position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en). If a JMA advisory plots the storm's center over Honshu, this market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center over Honshu but credible international news reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, this market resolves "Yes", with classification taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. Where a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time, JMA is the default resolution source.

Once a qualifying landfall is reported, this market may remain open for up to 36 hours to establish confirmation, after which it will resolve according to the latest JMA data. This market may resolve based on the initial JMA advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that changes the storm's classification or position at the time of landfall.

Un cyclone tropical arrivera-t-il sur Honshu en août 2026 ?

This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.

All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.

One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".

If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).

Plus de 8

Combien de cyclones tropicaux toucheront terre en Chine en 2026 ?

This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET. 

If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".

A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.

This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.

Combien d'ouragans se formeront pendant la saison des ouragans de l'Atlantique en 2026 ?

For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.

Un ouragan de catégorie 5 touchera-t-il terre aux États-Unis avant 2027 ?

This market resolves to the intensity category corresponding to the maximum sustained wind speed (10-minute average) shown in the applicable JMA advisory as defined below. The outcome categories are: "Tropical Storm" (34–47 kt), "Severe Tropical Storm" (48–63 kt), "Typhoon" (64–84 kt), "Very Strong Typhoon" (85–104 kt), and "Violent Typhoon" (105+ kt). Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing the coastline of any Japanese territory (including Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, and all main islands) on or before August 15, 2026.

Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Japanese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Japanese territory. The applicable advisory is selected as follows: if a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, that advisory's wind speed resolves the market; if no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. Once the applicable advisory is identified, its intensity fixes the outcome; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.

Archival evidence of JMA advisory data is maintained by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) at its Typhoon Images and Charts page for Typhoon 202613 (DOLPHIN). In the event of a resolution dispute, the intensity value recorded by Digital Typhoon for the applicable advisory fix shall be treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported.

JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market still resolves, with intensity taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. Only the first qualifying landfall on Japanese territory resolves the market; subsequent landfalls are disregarded.

This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Japanese land, regardless of whether JMA formally designates the event as "landfall" or "passage." The applicable JMA advisory (as selected above) must show maximum sustained winds of 34 knots or higher, classifying Dolphin as a tropical storm or above. If the applicable advisory classifies the system as a tropical depression (below 34 kt), extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market resolves to "No Qualifying Landfall."

This market resolves "No Qualifying Landfall" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Japanese territory, if the applicable advisory at the time of crossing shows winds below 34 knots, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.

Très puissant typhon

Typhon

Tempête tropicale

Quelle sera l'intensité du typhon Dolphin à son arrivée au Japon ?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.

The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.

If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.

Ouragans

Quel sera le nom du premier ouragan dans l'Atlantique pour la saison des ouragans 2026 ?

Un cyclone tropical arrivera-t-il sur Honshu en août 2026 ?

Combien de cyclones tropicaux toucheront terre en Chine en 2026 ?

Combien d'ouragans se formeront pendant la saison des ouragans de l'Atlantique en 2026 ?

Un ouragan de catégorie 5 touchera-t-il terre aux États-Unis avant 2027 ?

Quelle sera l'intensité du typhon Dolphin à son arrivée au Japon ?

Un cyclone tropical se formera-t-il dans les bassins du Pacifique ou du Pacifique central d'ici le 14 août ?