The runoff round of the Brazilian presidential election is scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. Legislative elections in Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. The United States midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve to the single listed outcome that matches all three of the following: the winner of the Brazilian presidential election, the first Prime Minister of Israel to be sworn in as a result of the election, and the party that wins control of the United States Senate in the midterm elections. 

For full rules for the Brazilian presidential election, click here: https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election

For full rules for the Israeli Prime Minister, click here: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election

For full rules for the United States Senate control, click here: https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026

Additional options may be added to this market between market creation and resolution. 

In the event that any constituent market resolves to "Other," this market will resolve to "Other."

This market will resolve according to the sources named in the three markets linked above.

Lula, Eizenkot, Dems

Lula, Netanyahu, Reps

Lula, Eizenkot, Reps

Fall Elections Combo: Brazil, Israel, US Senate

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued. 

If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. 

If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.

If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.  If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

No Change

25 bps decrease

25 bps increase

Bank of Brazil decision

Bank of Brazil decision in November?

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its December 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for December 8-9, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.

If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.

If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.

If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

50+ bps increase

Bank of Brazil decision in December?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jair Messias Bolsonaro is lawfully released from all custodial measures in Brazilian criminal proceedings between market creation and March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Custodial measures include imprisonment, preventive or pretrial detention, house arrest in any form, closed, semi-open, or open prison regimes, and any other measure in a Brazilian criminal proceeding requiring confinement in a prison, residence, or other designated place, except for the residence or curfew conditions permitted below.

The release must be legally authorized and actually implemented by the deadline, ending all custodial measures. For house arrest, this means the measure has ceased to apply and he is no longer held under it or any other custodial measure.

What qualifies:
- Release through sentence extinction, annulment, or completion; a pardon, commutation, or amnesty; or a judicial decision, including habeas corpus, provisional release, or suspension of sentence execution. His sentence or conviction need not have ended.
- Conditional release or parole (livramento condicional), including electronic monitoring, residence, or curfew conditions, provided he is no longer under house arrest or serving a sentence under a closed, semi-open, or open prison regime.

What does not qualify:
- Humanitarian house arrest (prisão domiciliar humanitária), including continuation, extension, or modification leaving any custodial measure in place, with or without an ankle monitor. Removing the monitor while custody continues does not qualify.
- Continuous confinement at a specified address, except for specifically authorized outings, even if described as a release condition.
- Announcements, signed acts, enacted laws, or release orders that are blocked, suspended, or otherwise unimplemented, including orders stayed or overturned before release. Issuance or publication alone is insufficient.
- Custody transfers, temporary outings for medical treatment, court appearances, voting, or similar purposes, or escape, unauthorized absence, or noncompliance with a custodial order.
- Release in one case while custody continues in another Brazilian criminal proceeding.

What does not affect qualification:
- Non-custodial restrictions, including passport surrender, social-media bans, reporting requirements, or ineligibility to hold public office.
- Electronic monitoring alone, residence at a specified address, or a curfew, subject to the custody exclusions above. He need not physically leave his residence or have a monitor removed if it remains solely as a non-custodial restriction.
- Whether the authorizing decision is final or unappealable; neither is required.
- How briefly he is released, or any subsequent re-arrest, reinstatement of custody, or reversal of the authorizing measure, even shortly afterward. Once a qualifying release occurs, the outcome will not change.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Supremo Tribunal Federal (https://portal.stf.jus.br), other competent Brazilian courts, or Brazilian corrections authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027?

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).

This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.

The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html

5.00-5.49%

5.50-5.99%

4.50-4.99%

Brazil Annual Inflation 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro is charged with a crime or arrested by Brazilian authorities, including by authorities of any state or other subdivision of Brazil, by October 31, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government involved in any action against Bolsonaro and information from Bolsonaro and/or his legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested

Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by October 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jair Messias Bolsonaro receives a pardon (indulto or graça), commutation, or reprieve granted by the President of Brazil between market creation and March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying grant of clemency means an act signed by the President of Brazil, or by whoever is lawfully exercising the office, that pardons, commutes, reduces, or suspends the execution of a sentence that had already been imposed on Jair Bolsonaro in a Brazilian criminal proceeding at the time the act was signed, and that has been published in the Diário Oficial da União between market creation and the deadline. Both signature and publication must occur within this period. A reprieve means a temporary suspension of the execution of an imposed sentence through presidential clemency. Full or partial relief from a custodial sentence or criminal fine will qualify; actual release from custody is not required. An anticipatory act of clemency covering conduct for which no sentence has been imposed will not qualify.

A clemency act that is suspended, annulled, or declared unconstitutional will still qualify, provided it otherwise satisfies these rules. Implementation, entry into effect, and continued legal validity are not required, including where the act is blocked before publication or implementation.

An amnesty law passed by the National Congress will not qualify. Judicial decisions, including appeals, habeas corpus rulings, sentence reviews, changes to his prison regime, and changes to the conditions of his house arrest, will not independently qualify. However, a judicial decision may establish that a presidential collective clemency decree applies to him as provided below.

A collective pardon (indulto coletivo) or collective commutation decree will qualify only if Jair Bolsonaro is named in the decree as a beneficiary of qualifying relief, or if the court competent to execute the relevant sentence, including the Supremo Tribunal Federal, issues an operative decision applying qualifying relief under that decree to him by the deadline. An operative order by an individual judge or justice will suffice; a full-court ruling is not required. The decree itself must also satisfy the signature and publication requirements above. Apparent eligibility under the decree's criteria, without such naming or decision, will not qualify.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be the Diário Oficial da União (https://www.in.gov.br) and, where applicable, the official records of the court applying a collective decree; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Jair Bolsonaro pardoned by March 31, 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.

Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.

A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

December 31

October 31

June 30

Will Lula announce nomination of a Supreme Court minister by...?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Investing.com high price (“H”) for any USD/BRL hourly candle for an hour between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Data for a given candle will be considered finalized once the next candle appears on the specified graph. The last trading day of a given week will be considered finalized once the market closes on that day, typically at 5 PM ET on Friday.

This market will resolve as soon as any finalized USD/BRL hourly candle high price is equal to or above the listed price, or once the final hourly candle in the specified period is finalized. A candle starting at 11:00 PM ET on a given date will be considered to be on that date.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on information from the “H” figure located at the top of the USD/BRL Streaming Chart on Investing.com for the specified currency pair (https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-brl-chart).

↑5.75

↑6.25

↑6.5

Will USD/BRL hit __ in 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.

Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?

This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 3rd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on December 2, 2026.

The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html

If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html

-0.3% to -0.1%

<-0.3%

0.0% to 0.2%

Brazil GDP

Brazil GDP Growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

This market resolves based on the highest monthly S2+ drought area percentage recorded for the state of Minas Gerais across the 2026/27 coffee growing season.

For the purpose of this market, the "2026/27 coffee growing season" is defined as the six-month window (September 2026 through February 2027) which corresponds to the flowering and bean-development period for arabica coffee in Minas Gerais. This is the crop-development period for the coffee harvested in 2027, and is distinct from the 2026 harvest (typically May–September 2026) and the subsequent shipping and marketing period for that crop. This label is descriptive only; resolution depends solely on the calendar months stated above.

For each month in the window, the S2+ drought area percentage is the percentage of the total area of the state of Minas Gerais classified at S2 (Seca Grave) or a more severe category. This is the value shown in the "S2–S4" column of ANA's "Área Acumulada" (accumulated area) tabular view for Minas Gerais, in the official tabular data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA). The "peak" is the single highest monthly S2+ drought area percentage across the six months as published by ANA.

This market will resolve once ANA has published an S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure for Minas Gerais for all six reference months, or at 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027 (60 calendar days after the end of February 2027), whichever occurs first. The resolving value is the highest monthly S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure among the reference months for which ANA has published data as of that time, using each month's figure as published by ANA as of that time, inclusive of any revisions ANA has published by then. If ANA has published data for none of the six reference months as of 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027, this market will resolve to "Under 5%".

The resolution source for this market will be data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA), found at https://monitordesecas.ana.gov.br/dados-tabulares?tipo=1&area=31.

Under 5%

40% to 59.99%

5% to 19.99%

Peak Severe Drought in Minas Gerais during the Coffee Growing Season?

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if total sponsor capital committed to the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) is greater than or equal to $10,000,000,000 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution value is the "Pledged capital" figure displayed on the Sponsor Capital gauge at the top of the tracker. If the tracker separately displays an "Invested capital" figure not already included in the pledged figure, the two are summed, with no contributor's capital counted more than once. 

This market will remain open until January 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to accommodate a lag in reporting. Only commitments made on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET will count. From January 1, 2027 through January 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the resolution value is the gauge figure less any contributor amount whose commitment is attributed, by the tracker or by the contributor's own announcement, to a date after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A commitment's date is the date of the contributor's public announcement of the pledge, not the date the tracker first reflects it. Revisions published after January 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the TFFF Watch Investment Tracker at https://tfffwatch.org/investment-tracker. If the TFFF Watch Investment Tracker becomes permanently unavailable or stops publishing these totals, this market will resolve based on official TFFF announcements at https://tfff.earth and a consensus of credible reporting, applying the same standard of sponsor capital formally pledged or paid in.

Will the TFFF reach $10 billion in 2026?

Soccer

International

Europe

North America

Asia

South America

Oceania

Africa

England

Germany

France

Spain

Italy

China

India

Japan

South Korea

Brazil

Australia

Mexico

Netherlands

Russia

Turkey

Saudi Arabia

Portugal

Denmark

Norway

Argentina

Basketball

Esports

Cricket

United Arab Emirates

Pakistan

Bangladesh

Sri Lanka

South Africa

New Zealand

Baseball

Football

Ice Hockey

Switzerland

Sweden

Czech Republic

Tennis

Rugby